The Future of European CBI: ECJ Proceedings, Programme Closures, and Residency Alternatives

Introduction: The ECJ and the Future of EU Citizenship by Investment

The European Union has never been uniformly comfortable with its member states selling EU citizenship to wealthy investors. EU citizenship carries far-reaching rights — free movement in 27 countries, the right to work without restriction across the EU, US visa-free access — that are conferred on EU citizens collectively. When one member state sells these rights for EUR 750,000, other member states and the European Commission question whether this is consistent with the solidarity and genuine-link principles that underpin EU citizenship.

The challenge came to a head in 2022–2024 through the ECJ proceedings against Malta, building on the earlier closures of EU citizenship programmes in Ireland, Luxembourg, Cyprus, and Bulgaria.

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The History of EU CBI Programme Closures

Country	Programme	Closure Date	Reason
Ireland	Individual Investor Programme (IIP)	February 2023	Voluntary closure; announced concerns about abuse
Luxembourg	Individual Investor Programme	Late 2017	Commission pressure; closed before it ever issued any passports
Cyprus	Cyprus Investment Programme (CIP)	November 2020	Scandal: Al Jazeera sting operation showing political figures issuing passports to convicted persons; European Commission pressure
Bulgaria	Investor Citizenship Programme	January 2022	European Commission recommendation following prolonged pressure
Malta	MEIN (Citizenship by Naturalisation for Exceptional Services)	Open as of 2025	Subject to ECJ proceedings; future uncertain

Cyprus's closure was the most dramatic — following an Al Jazeera documentary broadcast in October 2020 showing senior Cypriot political figures willing to issue CIP passports to individuals with serious criminal convictions, the programme was immediately suspended and permanently closed within weeks.

Bulgaria's closure was more orderly, following sustained European Commission recommendations and a formal opinion that the programme was incompatible with EU citizenship principles.

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ECJ Case C-181/23: The Malta Proceedings

Background

The European Commission launched infringement proceedings against Malta in October 2022, arguing that the MEIN programme violates EU Treaty law. The Commission's legal theory:

Article 20 TFEU grants EU citizenship to every national of a member state. The Commission's position is that EU citizenship is premised on a "genuine link" between the individual and the member state. A purely transactional citizenship — paying EUR 750,000 without genuine integration — does not establish such a link.

The Commission argues that by "commoditising" EU citizenship, Malta allows wealthy individuals to purchase rights (free movement, US ESTA access) that are the property of all EU member states jointly, without any of the integration, language, cultural, or community connection that ordinarily precedes naturalisation.

The Advocate General's Opinion (April 2024)

AG Anthony Collins delivered his opinion in the case in April 2024:

Key findings of the AG opinion:

1. EU citizenship has an inherent dignity and value that transcends commercial transaction
2. Member states have the right to define their own conditions for nationality, but this right has EU law limits
3. A purely transactional grant of citizenship — without any genuine link requirements beyond financial payment — violates EU law
4. The residency requirement (12 or 36 months) in MEIN is insufficient to establish a genuine link, particularly where there is no minimum physical presence obligation
5. Malta's scheme "sells EU citizenship" in a manner incompatible with the nature of Union citizenship

The AG recommended: the CJEU find that Malta has failed to fulfil its obligations under EU law.

What Happens Next

The full CJEU judgment was expected in late 2024 to mid-2025. The Court is not bound by the AG's opinion but follows it in the large majority of cases.

Possible outcomes:

1. Court upholds AG opinion: Malta must close or fundamentally reform MEIN. Applications already approved are likely protected under legitimate expectations; pending applications face uncertainty.
2. Court rejects AG opinion: MEIN continues, potentially with some required modifications to strengthen genuine-link elements.
3. Malta voluntarily closes before judgment: possible if Malta determines the reputational damage of continuing outweighs the revenue.

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The Position of Existing MEIN Citizens

Persons who have already received Maltese citizenship through MEIN are likely to be protected by the principle of legitimate expectations — they acted lawfully under the law as it stood when they applied. An adverse CJEU judgment would not retrospectively revoke existing citizenships.

However, the political and diplomatic sensitivity of holding a citizenship acquired through a programme subsequently ruled illegal by the CJEU should be considered. Some professional and business contexts (working in EU institutions, seeking security clearances) may scrutinise the route through which EU citizenship was acquired.

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The Current Golden Visa Residency Landscape

For clients seeking EU access who cannot or will not commit to Malta MEIN under the ECJ uncertainty, the golden visa residency routes — which provide EU residency (not citizenship, but a pathway to citizenship through naturalisation) — remain available.

Greece: Golden Visa

Status: operational as of 2025 (subject to ongoing political debate) Investment: real estate purchase at minimum EUR 250,000 (increased to EUR 400,000 in certain zones of Athens, Thessaloniki, and popular islands from 2023) Residency granted: 5-year renewable residence permit (the Golden Visa itself) Physical presence requirement for renewal: none — the Greek Golden Visa requires no minimum stay Path to citizenship: 7 years of legal residency in Greece; A1 Greek language requirement; genuine integration

The combination: Greece Golden Visa + NHR-equivalent tax regime (Greece's article 5A flat-tax regime at EUR 100,000/year for qualifying new tax residents). For high-income individuals, settling in Greece combines EU residency access with a very favourable tax treatment.

Portugal: ARI (Golden Visa — Post-2023 Reform)

Status: the property investment route was closed in October 2023 for new applications under the "Mais Habitação" (More Housing) law Currently available routes:

• Investment in qualifying investment funds (minimum EUR 500,000)
• Investment in scientific research (EUR 500,000)
• Qualifying job creation in Portugal (minimum 10 jobs)

Residency granted: 2-year permit, renewable (2 years, then 2 years) Physical presence requirement: 7 days/year average (very minimal — same as pre-reform) Path to citizenship: 5 years of legal residency; A2 Portuguese language; integration evidence

The 2023 property route closure significantly reduced the appeal of Portugal's Golden Visa. The fund investment route (EUR 500,000) remains, but fund investments are less tangible and less universally understood than property.

Hungary: Guest Investor Visa

Status: launched October 2024 — one of the newest EU golden visa programmes Investment: minimum EUR 250,000 in a Hungarian Real Estate Investment Fund (REIF) accredited under Hungarian Financial Supervisory Authority Residency granted: 10-year renewable residence permit Physical presence: none specified — primarily administrative Path to citizenship: 8 years of continuous lawful residency in Hungary; Hungarian language test; genuine integration

Hungary's programme is the newest, has the lowest investment threshold among EU golden visas, and offers a long (10-year) initial residency period. Given the current EU political climate and Hungary's sometimes strained relationship with the European Commission, potential applicants should monitor the programme's legal and political stability.

Italy: Non-EU Investor Visa

Status: operational Investment routes: EUR 2M government bonds; EUR 1M Italian company investment; EUR 500,000 innovative startup investment; EUR 1M charitable donation to a project of public interest Residency: 2-year initial permit + renewable 3-year permit Path to citizenship: 10 years of continuous legal residence in Italy; Italian language (B1); integration Tax: Italy's article 24-bis flat-tax regime (EUR 100,000/year lump sum tax on all foreign income)

Italy is particularly attractive for non-EU individuals who want to combine EU residency with Italy's lifestyle (climate, culture, cuisine) and tax efficiency for foreign income.

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Comparison: EU Golden Visa Residency Routes

Country	Investment	Duration	Physical Presence Req	Path to Citizenship	Tax Regime
Greece	EUR 250,000–400,000 (real estate)	5 years	None	7 years	Article 5A flat tax EUR 100k
Portugal	EUR 500,000 (funds)	2+2+2 years	7 days/year	5 years	IFICI (NHR successor)
Hungary	EUR 250,000 (fund)	10 years	None	8 years	Standard (flat rate available)
Italy	EUR 500,000–2M	2+3 years	None mandatory	10 years	Article 24-bis flat tax EUR 100k
Spain	(Property route suspended 2024)	N/A	N/A	10 years	Beckham Law
Malta MEIN	EUR 600,000–750,000 + RE	12/36 months (pre-natural.)	ECJ uncertain	On naturalisation	Domicile regime

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What Clients Should Do in 2025

For clients seeking EU access in 2025, the recommendations are:

1. If EU citizenship required urgently: Malta MEIN remains open but the ECJ risk should be explained and accepted. Applications submitted under the current legal framework are likely protected even if the programme is subsequently closed.

2. If EU residency sufficient (pathway to citizenship): Portugal (fund route) or Greece (real estate) provide stable, proven routes with well-developed professional service infrastructure.

3. If cost-sensitivity matters: Greece at EUR 250,000 or Hungary at EUR 250,000 offer the lowest investment thresholds among EU residency routes.

4. If lifestyle is a factor: Italy's culture + flat tax combination is highly appealing for individuals who genuinely want to live in Italy; Portugal's quality of life + NHR tax regime for those willing to spend real time there.

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HPT Group and EU Residency Advisory

HPT Group advises clients on EU residency and citizenship pathways, providing an objective assessment of the Malta MEIN programme in light of the ECJ proceedings, alongside the golden visa residency alternatives in Greece, Portugal, Hungary, and Italy. For clients for whom EU citizenship is the objective, we advise on the naturalisation timeline, language requirements, and genuine integration strategy for each residency route. Our advisory explicitly addresses the ECJ risk and helps clients make informed decisions about their EU access strategy. Contact HPT Group to discuss European residency and citizenship options.